Elina Svitolina enters this year’s French Open in scorching form and looks poised to make a deep run in Paris. While Jasmine Paolini has firmly established herself as one of the top clay-court players on the WTA Tour—boasting a 21-4 record on the surface over the last 52 weeks and a title at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia—this matchup presents serious challenges for the Italian.
Paolini, last year’s Roland Garros runner-up, is a trendy pick to reach the semifinals again. However, Svitolina has quietly become a dominant force on clay in 2025. The Ukrainian has posted a 15-2 record on the surface since the start of the European clay-court swing, with her only notable loss coming against Iga Swiatek’s chief rival, Aryna Sabalenka, in Madrid.
Statistically, Svitolina holds the edge: she arrived in Paris with a 75.1% hold rate and a 42.5% break rate, significantly outpacing Paolini’s 67.6% hold and 43.7% break percentages. Both players are elite returners, but Svitolina’s serve gives her a crucial advantage. Her ability to control points with her baseline consistency and redirect pace makes her a nightmare matchup—especially against Paolini’s weaker backhand wing.
Svitolina already holds a recent head-to-head win over Paolini, having defeated her 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 at the Australian Open. While both players have improved since then, Svitolina’s clay-court resume is the strongest on the WTA Tour this season—she leads the field in clay wins. With her improved aggression and shot tolerance, she’s playing her best tennis since her 2017 peak.
Off the court, Svitolina also tends to garner strong support from the French crowd. As the wife of French star Gaël Monfils, she often receives an enthusiastic reception at Roland Garros. That added boost could be pivotal in a tight match, especially with the Parisian fans traditionally quick to embrace sentimental favorites.
While Iga Swiatek remains the tournament favorite and continues to dominate French Open scores and headlines, Elina Svitolina is a serious dark horse—one with the tools to go toe-to-toe with anyone left in the draw.
