Caitlin Clark’s MVP Odds: Is Now the Time to Bet on Her?
Caitlin Clark entered the 2025 WNBA season as the odds-on favorite to win MVP. But after a quad injury sidelined her for at least two weeks, Napheesa Collier surged to the top of the MVP oddsboard. As of now, Collier is the clear frontrunner with -300 odds — a reflection of both her dominant performance and the Minnesota Lynx’s strong start.
Clark, however, is expected to return this Saturday against the New York Liberty. That raises two key questions:
Can she re-enter the MVP race? And more importantly, is there any betting value in backing her now at +320?
What It Takes to Win MVP
Historically, the MVP award favors players who combine elite individual performance with team success. Using fantasy points per game (FP/G) as a proxy for individual output and win percentage for team performance, here’s what the last 10 WNBA MVPs have averaged:
- 40.2 FP/G
- 74.8% team win rate
Here’s a snapshot of those past MVP seasons:
| MVP | FP/G | Win% |
|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson (2024) | 50.4 | 67.5% |
| Breanna Stewart (2023) | 44.4 | 80.0% |
| A’ja Wilson (2022) | 38.5 | 72.2% |
| Jonquel Jones (2021) | 40.2 | 81.3% |
| A’ja Wilson (2020) | 37.4 | 81.8% |
| Elena Delle Donne (2019) | 35.4 | 76.5% |
| Breanna Stewart (2018) | 40.1 | 76.5% |
| Sylvia Fowles (2017) | 37.4 | 79.4% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (2016) | 37.4 | 76.5% |
| Elena Delle Donne (2015) | 40.8 | 61.8% |
Where the Candidates Stand
We’re only about 20% into the 2025 season — each team has played around 9–10 of their 44 games. While much can change, only a few players are currently on track to meet historical MVP benchmarks:
- Caitlin Clark (+320):
41.5 FP/G (3rd in WNBA)
Fever record: 44.4% win rate
Clark has the production; her candidacy hinges on team success. - A’ja Wilson (+2000):
44.3 FP/G (2nd in WNBA)
Aces record: 50%
Elite stats but underwhelming team record so far. - Breanna Stewart (+3300):
33.7 FP/G (12th in WNBA)
Liberty record: 100%
Team is undefeated, but her personal numbers aren’t MVP-level right now. - Napheesa Collier (-300):
Leads the league in both productivity and team success, and is currently the only player who clears both MVP criteria thresholds.
The Case for Clark
Before her injury, Clark was delivering numbers consistent with MVP standards. Her Fever were 2–2, with losses to the undefeated Liberty and a rematch win over Atlanta. The Indiana front office has built a solid core around Clark, adding veterans like Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner alongside Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell.
Now, with Clark set to return, the Fever have room to surge. Their current win rate (44.4%) is below MVP standards, but they have arguably the best opportunity among teams with MVP candidates to improve dramatically.
It’s worth noting: Clark averaged 43.7 FP/G over the final 28 games of her rookie season — higher than the MVP benchmark of 40.2 FP/G.
Add in Clark’s massive popularity and media attention, and any uptick in performance will quickly reflect in the betting markets. Her +320 odds might not last long if Indiana goes on a run.
Betting Insight
If you’re hesitant to back longshots like Wilson or Stewart — who need their situations to change significantly — Clark presents a more realistic path to MVP. She already checks the production box, and her team is on the verge of improvement with her return.
Collier remains the rightful favorite, but with 80% of the season left, there’s value in betting on a surging candidate. Especially one with proven star power, statistical output, and a supporting cast that can help elevate her team’s success.
Bottom line: If you believe in Clark and the Fever, now’s the best window to get value on her MVP odds.
