Mamdani Surges Ahead of Cuomo in Final NYC Mayoral Poll Before Primary Day
NEW YORK (GorgeousTrends) — In a surprising shift just days before Primary Day, Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has overtaken former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the final round of a ranked-choice voting simulation, according to a new independent poll.
The poll — conducted by PIX11 News, Emerson College, and The Hill between June 18–20 — surveyed early and likely Democratic voters in New York City’s mayoral primary. It shows Mamdani edging out Cuomo 52% to 48% in the final round of the ranked-choice tabulation.
Despite Cuomo receiving the most first-choice votes at 36%, followed by Mamdani at 34% and NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 13%, the dynamics changed significantly in later rounds. When Lander was eliminated, the majority of his supporters’ second-choice votes went to Mamdani — largely due to a mutual cross-endorsement between Mamdani and Lander, encouraging their voters to rank the other second.
Key Developments Captured in the Poll:
- Cross-endorsements among progressive candidates, including Mamdani and Lander
- The final Democratic debate
- Lander’s brief ICE detention outside federal immigration court
- Controversy over Mamdani’s comments defending the phrase “globalize the intifada”
- Endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (for Mamdani) and growing Jewish community support for Cuomo
- Several influential op-eds in The New York Times
- Early voting turnout nearly double compared to four years ago, particularly in progressive areas of Manhattan and Brooklyn
Notably, the poll does not reflect the impact of former President Bill Clinton’s endorsement of Cuomo, which came after the survey period ended.
This poll marks a dramatic rise for Mamdani, who was polling at just 1% in Emerson’s February survey. Now, with only 4% of voters still undecided, the momentum may be on his side.
Internal Campaign Reactions
A source close to the Cuomo campaign claimed the findings are inconsistent with their internal polling, which aligns more closely with Marist’s earlier data. That poll had Cuomo leading by double digits and showed 11% of voters still undecided.
“This is an outlier,” a Cuomo campaign spokesperson told PIX11. “Every other credible poll — including two from last week — shows Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead. Between now and tomorrow, we’ll continue to fight for every vote, just like he’ll fight for every New Yorker as Mayor.”
| Candidate | First-Choice Votes | Final Round Result | Key Endorsements / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cuomo | 36% | 48% | Backed by Bill Clinton, gaining support in Jewish communities |
| Zohran Mamdani | 34% | 52% (Winner) | Endorsed by Bernie Sanders; cross-endorsed with Brad Lander |
| Brad Lander | 13% | Eliminated | Brief ICE detention; cross-endorsed Mamdani; second-choice votes crucial |
| Undecided Voters | — | 4% remain undecided | Down from 11% in previous Marist poll |
With momentum building and turnout surging in liberal neighborhoods, all eyes are now on June 24, when Democratic voters will determine whether Mamdani’s late surge can turn polling projections into a historic primary victory.
